Fantasy Baseball News

Fantasy Baseball Stock Report: Nelson Cruz, Drew Stubbs, Rafael Dolis, Shin-Soo Choo

 

 

Bloomberg Sports Anchor Rob Shaw (@RobShawSports) breaks down the top buy low and sell high candidates on the Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Baseball Stock Report.

 

Buy Low:

 

Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Indians

 

The total numbers are disappointing, 2 homers, 15 runs, 17 RBI, and a .267 AVG.  On the other hand, he has hits in 16 of his last 18 games, has stolen six bases, and already has 5 doubles over the last 11 games.  Keep in mind that Choo took a little while to bounce back after missing a large chunk of last season.  However, at his best this is a rare 20-20 talent.  This is a fine time to pick him up while his fantasy managers are keeping him glued to the bench.

 

Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers

 

In the past, the only thing keep Nelson Cruz down was his health.  This season he has been an iron man and while his run production is solid with 24 runs and 23 RBI and his average is respectable at .274, so far the power has been limited with just four home runs.  However, a closer look at the double-digit doubles tells me that maybe some of those shots simply have not left the yard, but come the summer in Texas, I think the ball will really start to fly off his bat.  I still think 30 home runs is realistic, so go ahead and make the move for Cruz, though keep in mind that he is slowing down a bit on the base paths and he does have that injury-prone label. 

 

Sell High:

 

Drew Stubbs, OF, Reds

 

Stolen bases have some serious value in fantasy leagues and for that reason alone you may be able to unload Drew Stubbs.  Stubbs is a low average hitter with some pop and speed.  He swiped 40 bases last season, which got a lot of attention, but also we saw a decline in home runs from 22 to 15.  This season he only has three in comparison to his seven stolen bases.  The positive is that he does score a lot of runs, which really is amazing when you consider that he strikes out a ton and rarely reaches base.  Trade Stubbs while you can to someone desperate for some steals.

 

Rafael Dollis, RP, Cubs

 

I have been known to lead my leagues on annual basis in saves despite not drafting closers until the middle or late rounds.  I do this by picking up the pitchers who gain the promotion into the ninth inning because of either the struggles or health woes to the player ahead of them.  Often it can result in excellence, such is the case with my drafting Aroldis Chapman in the final round of my draft.  On the other hand, sometimes the closer I pick up implodes and doesn’t hold the gig for long.  I fear that Cubs closer Rafael Dollis is of the latter.  While I do like his youth at 24 years old and his live arm, I am very much in fear of his lack of strikeouts.  This will not only hurt my fantasy team in that category, but also you typically like closers that can miss bats otherwise they can find themselves in trouble.  With a 3.75 ERA and 2 blown saves already, I am selling on Dollis and keep in mind that Carlos Marmol will return from the DL and could end up earning the gig once again.  

Waiver Wire Adds: Ernesto Firieri, Matt Adams, Dayan Viciedo, and Xavier Avery

 

 

Bloomberg Sports Anchor Rob Shaw breaks down the top picks off the waiver wire in fantasy baseball. 

 

Ernesto Firieri, RP, Angels

 

It usually turns out that the best arm in the bullpen ends up with the closer’s gig.  It’s Darwinism and most recently played out in Cincinnati where Aroldis Chapman picked up what will likely be the first of many saves with a strong finish against the Yankees on Sunday.  In Anaheim, we have seen Jordan Waldan lose the job after his early season struggles and southpaw Scott Downs then picked it up.  I have no complaints with Downs, he was excellent last season with a 1.34 ERA and he has yet to surrender a single run this year in 12 innings.  But in Firieri the Angels have a flame-thrower that has fanned 14 batters in 6.2 innings since he was acquired from the Padres.  He’s worth picking up since he’ll give you some immediate value and that could soar down the line assuming he gets his hands on the ninth inning.

 

Matt Adams, 3B, Cardinals

 

In his first taste of Big League action, Matt Adams did exactly what he’s done in the minors: rake.  The 23-year-old top prospect in the Cardinals system may start the remainder of the season at first base with Lance Berkman possibly lost for the season due to a knee injury.  The former 23rd round pick had never hit less than .300 in any of his seasons in the farm system.  After blasting 32 home runs with a .300 last season at Double-A, he hammered nine with a .340 average before earning a promotion this season.  This is a player worth using your waiver wire priority on, and feel free to up the ante if in an auction waiver wire.

 

Dayan Viciedo, OF, White Sox

 

If in need of a power bat, take a look at Dayan Viciedo.  The White Sox top prospect got off to a tough start, but has really turned things around lately.  On May 13, Viciedo’s batting average dipped below the Mendoza line down to .196.  Since then he has enjoyed a seven game hit streak with four home runs and 10 RBI.  He will kill you in leagues that consider on base percentage, as he has drawn just three walks all season.  On the other hand, his strikeouts are in decline and the White sox even pushed him up to cleanup on Sunday with Paul Konerko out of the lineup.  The White Sox know that they will need Viciedo to come up big this season if the team is going to compete, so look for the franchise to do everything to jumpstart their rising slugger.

 

Xavier Avery, OF, Orioles

 

This 22-year-old outfielder was a second round pick in 2008 and has taken some time to develop.  Last season he had 36 steals, but very little power and horrible plate discipline while playing at Double-A.  This year Avery started at Triple-A and played at an all-time high level.  He drew a ton of walks, hit for power, and was a perfect 8 for 8 on the base paths.  Avery has since been called up to the Big Leagues where he got his first Major League against the Yankees.  A potential 5-tool talent with youth on his side, Avery has a shot at making an impact in the Big Leagues.  He’ll hold down left-field until Nolan Reimold returns and at that point the Orioles will have to make a tough decision.  Avery batted leadoff on Sunday for the Orioles and responded with two hits, a run scored, and his first Major League stolen base.  He is now batting .312.

What Happened to Rangers Hurler Scott Feldman?

 

 

If in Texas everything is big, Rangers veteran hurler Scott Feldman fits right in at 6’7”.  Despite the imposing figure, Feldman is actually something of a soft-tosser who gets by with finesse.  In 2009, Feldman did more than just get by.  He was sensational in the franchise’s transition into one of the league’s better pitching rotations.  He finished with a 17-8 record and a 4.08 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. 

 

Since then, the journey has been a bit rockier for Feldman despite the team’s good fortune, reaching back-to-back World Series.  He struggled in 2010 and then last season was only healthy enough to contribute 32 innings, though he was solid with a 3.94 ERA and stellar 1.09 WHIP. 

 

Now 29 years old, Feldman has regained his health and has assumed a role as a spot-starter for the Rangers.  He performed admirably on Monday, pitching 4.2 innings while surrendering no earned runs.  His ERA is down to 3.00 through 15 innings of work. 

 

Never much of a strikeout artist, Feldman does offer some solid control and keeps the ball in the park, which isn’t easy pitching in Arlington.  If he can somehow stick in the rotation, Feldman has a shot at enjoying fantasy value with plenty of wins and a respectable ERA and WHIP.  However, for now he is a fantasy afterthought with greater value in reality.  

 

Tim Stauffer Returns to the Fantasy Baseball Scene

 

 

In 2003, the Padres owned the fourth pick of the MLB Draft.  The franchise had its choice of a few top prospects including John Danks, Nick Markakis, and Chad Billingsley.  Instead, San Diego opted for Tim Stauffer, a right-hander out of Richmond. 

 

Stauffer struggled early in his professional career, however, in 2009 he broke out with a 1.85 ERA in 82.2 innings of work as a spot-starter and long-reliever.  As a result of the fine performance, Stauffer enjoyed a promotion the following year to a full-time starter.  Stauffer picked up 9 wins with a 3.73 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.  Of course PETCO Field played its role, as he was 6-5 at home with a 2.57 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. 

 

The 29-year-old right-hander showed some wear and tear in August, as his strikeouts declined and his home runs soared.  After missing the first month and a half of the 2012 season due to a strained elbow, Stauffer made his season debut on Monday.  Against the Nationals, the Padres hurler fanned five batters in five innings of work.  He was a tad wild and bit too hittable as he came away with a no-decision. 

 

Stauffer returns to PETCO this weekend for an Interleague match-up with the Angels.  Fantasy managers should consider the veteran as a solid platoon option worth starting every time he takes the hill in San Diego even though a lack of run support will limit his ability to pick up wins. 

This is a New Carlos Zambrano, Fantasy Managers Take Notice

 

 

Carlos Zambrano is making himself at home in Miami.  He finally picked up his first win of the season last week with a three-hitter, which pushed his ERA down to 1.98.  The ERA only declined further, to 1.88, after seven solid innings against the Mets on Sunday.  Zambrano fanned seven batters while walking three in yet another no-decision. 

 

With his control in check, Zambrano is one of the better hurlers in baseball right now.  Aside from one outing in which he issued six walks, Zambrano has walked three batters or fewer in every start this season. 

 

When playing for the Cubs, part of the job description was to handle Wrigley Field in every home start.  Sometimes the wind would push the ball out of the stadium, adding yet another component to his performance.  This season, Zambrano will call home to a pitcher-friendly Marlins Park.  Yet, so far most of Zambrano’s starts have come on the road, where he has offered a 1.55 ERA. 

 

Though his volatile personality will always carry some risk, this is also the same pitcher that has won 16 or more games on three different occasions.  Having shed a great deal of weight during the off-season and with his control and temper in check, Zambrano is a pitcher you can invest in. 

Jordany Valdespin Not Getting Much of a Look In New York

 

 

After six fruitless at bats, Jordany Valdespin launched his first hit of his Big League career and it was one to remember, a three-run homer against Jonathan Papelbon to win the game for the Mets against the rival Phillies. 

 

A 24-year-old five-tool talent, Valdespin could end up as a super sub, similar to Orioles third baseman Wilson Betemit, but with a bit more upside.  Last season, Valdespin played at the high levels of the Minor Leagues and responded with 17 home runs and 37 stolen bases.  Though he hit .294, Valdespin only drew 25 walks compared to 93 strikeouts, which raises fears about his plate discipline in the Major Leagues. 

 

So far this season for the Mets, Valdespin has played second base, shortstop, and the outfield.  He definitely gives the Mets a solid glove at second base, which he displayed on Sunday against the Marlins, but he is not about to displace the steady hitting Daniel Murphy. 

 

It looked as though Valdespin would get a crack at shortstop with Ruben Tejada on the DL, but the Mets recently took veteran utility man Ronnie Cedeno off the disabled list.  While Valdespin offers a great deal of promise, it is premature to call on him for any fantasy value. 

Brandon Snyder is Little More than Insurance for the Rangers

 

 

A former first round pick in 2005, Brandon Snyder is a 25-year-old that only had 14 at bats in the Big Leagues entering last Monday.  During his time in the farm system, Snyder proved to have little plate discipline, but he does have some power. 

 

Snyder became a fantasy trend last week as he blasted a home run with six RBI in a big win against the Baltimore Orioles.  Truth is, even last week it was clear that the big performance was no more than a career day than anything else.  Snyder was playing third base, a position that is handled by Gold Glove winner Adrian Beltre.  It’s not as if the designated hitter spot is open for Snyder either as Mike Napoli, Michael Young, and Mitch Moreland take turns in the Rangers lineup.

 

Since the big performance, Snyder has only had two appearances.  He went 0-3 with a strikeout against the Orioles a few days later.  He then managed a single in four at bats on Saturday against the Angels.  With just 26 at bats this season, Snyder is little more than an insurance policy for the Rangers. 

Solid Start for Red Sox Hurler Felix Doubront

 

 

A 24-year-old southpaw, Felix Doubront is finally getting his shot as a starter in the Big Leagues.  Though he has been a strikeout artist so far this season, he has also been a bit too hittable.  Fellow southpaws were hitting an all too comfortable .295 against him coming into the week.  He had also has struggled at Fenway to the tune of a 6.00 ERA. 

 

Based on his minor league statistics, one can expect Doubront’s control to improve.  He was a popular fantasy option this week as he visited the Royals on Monday, then hosted the Indians on Saturday. 

 

In the Kansas City start, Doubront was far from his best.  He surrendered seven hits and five runs, but since only three were earned, it qualifies as a quality start.  Doubront was much better five days later when he held the Royals to just three hits in six innings, surrendering one earned run.  He picked up a second straight win, improving his record to 3-1, while the ERA fell to 4.46. 

 

Doubront’s home ERA is now comparable to his road splits, and left-handed batters are now hitting just .278 against him.  The Red Sox hurler will find an increase in strength of schedule, as he next takes on the Rays before a start against Baltimore.  It will be more important for Doubront to keep the walks down against two of the best teams in the American League this season. 

Tigers Hurler Doug Fister Picking Up From 2011

 

 

If you’re lucky your rival fantasy managers may have forgotten about Doug Fister and what he offered last season.  The Tigers right-hander returned this week from the disabled list and was offered a dream fantasy week. 

 

Fister took on the hapless Mariners offense and the A’s offense both in big-time pitcher’s parks.  Though the Tigers did not offer the run support that we expected, Fister was sensational even if his record is just 0-1. 

 

In his return to the mound, Fister stymied the Mariners for seven innings, allowing just four hits and no walks through seven innings.  The Tigers eventually lost that contest 3-2.  Next, Fister went six innings against the A’s, allowing nothing more than a first inning run.  The right-hander fanned eight batters, but again lacked the run support for a win. 

 

Through 16.2 innings, Fister now boasts a 0.54 ERA and 14:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  He has dominated in his 14 appearances since joining the Tigers.  Fister’s value should only improve throughout the season as the offense should eventually awake and offer the run support that allowed the 6’8” right-hander to go 8-1 down the stretch a season ago. 

Were they April Fools, Or Legitimate Stars?

 

 

Here’s a look at the best fantasy players of April and whether they are sustaining their production or regressing to a less impressive level of play. 

 

Best April Catcher: Yadier Molina, Cardinals

April Stats: 14 runs, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 2 SB, .316 AVG

Update: Since the change of month, Yadier Molina has only one RBI.  Molina hurt his left hand in a game on May 8 and hopes to return to the diamond.

Conclusion: One of the most well-rounded catchers in baseball, Molina will remain one of the game’s best at his position, though Orioles masked marvel Matt Wieters may overtake him.

 

Best April First Baseman: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

April Stats: 15 runs, 7 HR, 20 RBI, .298 AVG

Update: Four hits and 3 RBI against the A’s on Thursday got Cabrera back in rhythm.  His statistics have gone down a bit, but he remains amongst the best in baseball.

Conclusion: Cabrera is 100% legitimate and the best corner infielder in baseball right now. 

 

Best April Second Baseman: Ian Kinsler, Rangers

April Stats: 24 runs, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 2 SB, .298 AVG

Update: Though riding a six-game hit streak, Kinsler’s batting average has declined and he does not have an extra base hit during that stretch. 

Conclusion: What makes Kinsler so valuable is the combination of power and speed.  If he can keep the batting average closer to .300, he’ll be in the MVP conversation. 

 

Best April 3rd Baseman: Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays

April Stats: 15 runs, 8 HR, 21 RBI, 4 SB, .322 AVG

Update: One of the biggest surprises in April, Encarnacion remains a valuable power bat in May, though the batting average has returned to normalcy. 

Conclusion: Encarnacion should finally swat 30-home runs, but it may come with a disappointing average. 

 

Best April Shortstop: Mike Aviles, Red Sox- 18 Runs, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 3 SB, .291 AVG

April Stats: 18 Runs, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 3 SB, .291 AVG

Update: Aviles has not been immune to the Red Sox struggles.  His power numbers have come back to earth and his average has been in free fall this May.

Conclusion: Aviles is a fine middle infielder, but he is not the best.  He over-performed in April. 

 

Best April Outfielder: Matt Kemp, Dodgers

April Stats: 24 runs, 12 HR, 25 RBI, 2 SB, .417 AVG

Update: Kemp has slowed down a bit and has yet to go deep this month.  He remains one of the best hitters in baseball and likely MVP contender, but he is no longer running away with the honor.

Conclusion: He was bound to slow down as pitchers were bound to adapt.  Josh Hamilton is now challenging him for supremacy in the Big Leagues. 

 

Best April Starting pitcher: Jake Peavy, White Sox

April Stats: 3 Wins, 33 K, 1.67 ERA, 0.69 WHIP

Update: With two quality starts already this month, Peavy continues to dominate the fantasy scene.  He has pitched at least seven innings in each of his last five starts and has only quality starts this season.  He is 1-0 in May so far. 

Conclusion: It’s been several years since we’ve seen this type of dominance from Peavy.  Let’s hope he can avoid the injury-bug for the first time since he’s left San Diego. 

 

Best April Reliever: Fernando Rodney, Rays

April Stats: 1 Win, 7 SV, 9 K, 0.87 ERA, 0.77 WHIP

Update: Rodney has added a win and two saves to his record this month without surrendering a single run. 

Conclusion: This is looking pretty real and it all has to do with control.  Rodney boasts a 14:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  He’s the latest reliever to enjoy a renaissance after joining the Rays bullpen.

 

 

Pirates Have Their Ace in Right-hander James McDonald

 

 

If the Pirates are finally going to creep above mediocrity this season it will require James McDonald to evolve into a staff ace.  The Pirates hurler who touches the low 90s went 9-9 last season with a 4.21 ERA.  He would have been much better if he was able to do better than a walk every other inning. 

 

This season McDonald has been better.  The opposition has had a hard time hitting him, to the tune of a .213 average.  Plus, his walks are way down this season resulting in a 1.09 WHIP and a 2.70 ERA.  He is riding a hot streak, allowing just one hit in seven innings in a tough no decision against the Rockies, then picking up a win with 10 K’s in Atlanta, followed by another win with one crossing the dish against him by a solid Reds offense. 

 

McDonald’s success is entirely dependent on his control.  He has the stuff to keep batters off edge at the plate, but he has to keep them off the bases via free passes.  With the Pirates looking to develop young talent with the hope of contending in the short-term, McDonald will have to lead a staff that is comprised of retreads such as Erik Bedard and AJ Burnett. 

When will Duane Below get his chance?

 

 

A little over a week ago, the Tigers announced that Duane Below would earn his first crack at starting this season.  The southpaw had certainly earned the opportunity in his second season with the Tigers.  Below had yet to issue a walk and the opposition was hitting just .167 against him in 12 scoreless innings.  Alas, the opportunity never came as rain pushed the game back and Tigers manager Jim Leyland was not about to alter his rotation just to get Below a spot start. 

 

Since then Below has continued throwing darts.  He has added an additional two innings of work to his season total and the opposition has offered just a hit and walk against him without cracking the scoreboard in his last three appearances.  Through 14 innings, Below now boasts a 0.00 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, and .174 average against.  Simply put, he has been one of the best hurlers in baseball this season. 

 

The big question is whether the Tigers have lucked out with this year’s version of Doug Fister?  To answer that we look at Below’s stats in the minor leagues.  Though he was a tad too hittable early in his professional career, the numbers have drastically improved in recent years.  In fact, in 2011, Below was 9-4 in 18 starts with a 3.13 ERA in Triple-A.  He does not get many strikeouts, but he has great command of the strike zone. 

 

Despite some big prospects in the Tigers system, Below has earned the next spot start needed in Detroit.  It’s about time for his fantasy managers to hope for an opportunity in Detroit. 

Mets Starting Pitcher RA Dickey Is More Than Just a Good Story

 

 

Mets starting pitcher RA Dickey is more than just a great a story.  He is a solid hurler who earned his billing as the number two pitcher in the Mets rotation.  April is traditionally not a good month for the knuckleball, and yet Dickey has five brilliant performances and one disastrous outing.  On that note, he is 4-1 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.  Though he remains susceptible to the home run (seven in six starts), Dickey is also something of a strikeout artist this season with 32 K’s in 38.1 innings of work. 

 

Considering the knuckleball is an all-or-nothing pitch, ERA and WHIP may not be the best indicators for his performance.  After all, when a knuckleballer doesn’t have his pitch, he is left with a very hittable fastball.  That explains why after six starts, half of Dickey’s earned runs came in one ugly implosion. 

 

A statistic that is better in tune with Dickey’s performance is quality start percentage.  It requires six or more innings while allowing three or fewer runs to score.  In his breakout 2010 season, Dickey offered a quality start in 18 of his 26 starts (69%).   Last season he finished on a tear and offered a solid 68% quality start percentage.  Finally, this season Dickey has taken it to a whole new level at 83%. 

 

Dickey’s next two starts won’t be slam dunks.  He faces the Marlins in Miami, then heads north for the Blue Jays in Toronto.  What’s interesting is that both games could be played indoors.  This could have an impact for a knuckleballer who relies on the wind to keep the ball moving.  Regardless, Dickey has proven to be an every week start in fantasy baseball leagues, and now that he is also getting strikeouts there are very few holes in his game.   

Mike Minor Making A Home On the Fantasy Waiver Wire

 

 

After a rough opening start against the Mets, Mike Minor responded with three consecutive quality starts.  Minor was suddenly a fantasy star on the rise, which was much-needed for a Braves team that had already demoted hurler Jair Jurrjens to the minor leagues. 

 

Through four starts, Minor boasted respectable numbers including a 2-1 record with a respectable 3.42 ERA.  Most impressive was the 0.99 WHIP as a result of his fine control and .233 opposing batting average.  Minor had not walked a batter in the previous two games and allowed just one home run all season.  Then he hit a rocky road.

 

The Pirates were supposed to be an easy win for Minor.  Instead, the contest marked his second loss of the season, as after hurling two shutout innings he surrendered two runs in three of the next four innings and then another run in the seventh before he was removed.  The good news for fantasy managers were the nine strikeouts, but he also walked three batters and allowed two home runs. 

 

Minor’s next start might as well have been at death row.  He visited the Rockies in Coors Field and while the good news was that the Braves eventually won, the bad news including 10 hits, four walks, and eight earned runs in just five innings of work.  His ERA has skyrocketed to 5.97 and the once impressive WHIP has lost its luster at 1.35. 

 

Things may get worse before they get better as Minor next takes on a very good Cardinals offense.  This is a pitcher that may have a bright future, but for now should make his home on the waiver wire. 

Dodgers Southpaw Aces: Clayton Kershaw and Ted Lilly Analysis

 

 

The Dodgers are thriving this season, sitting alone in first place in the National League West.  A great deal of credit is certainly owed to Andre Ethier and NL MVP favorite Matt Kemp.  The two outfielders have been prolific run producers and Kemp is fresh off one of the most dominant months in recent history. 

 

While offense is certainly important, it has been the team’s pitching that has let the leads stand.  While Chad Billingsley has returned to form this season and Chris Capuano has been a pleasant surprise, the key arms in the rotation have been southpaws Clayton Kershaw and Ted Lilly. 

 

Kershaw and Lilly could not be more different.  Kershaw is a phenom, who at not even 25 years old is already a Cy Young winner and on the fast track to Cooperstown.  Lilly is a 36-year-old veteran hurling on his sixth Major League team.  While both left-handers have very different pasts, they are both a part of an important present for the Dodgers.

 

Kershaw was as good as it gets last season with 21 wins, 248 K’s, and a 2.23 ERA.  What’s even more promising is that he is on a better track this season.  Though six starts, Kershaw was just 2-3 with a 3.52 ERA and 15 walks a season ago.  This season, Kershaw remains a perfect 2-0, while his walks have been nearly cut in half and his ERA is just 2.63. 

 

Aside from comparing Kershaw to his own personal milestones there are few other peers who have enjoyed his level of excellence.  Of course, his dominant stuff coming from a left-handed arm slot may remind some of Dodgers Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax.  Truth is, Kershaw is very different than Koufax.  Kershaw could end up having a far greater impact than Koufax. 

 

Koufax was a late bloomer who did not hone his control until he was 25 years old.  He then went on to have six of the most impressive seasons in baseball history before an arm injury prematurely ended his career.  Kershaw has been pitching at a high level since he broke into the league in 2008.  Here’s a comparison of both Dodgers aces through 24 years old. 

 

Year	Record	IP	K	BB	ERA	Games
Kershaw	49-28	754	779	286	2.86	124
Koufax	36-40	691.2	683	405	4.10	174

 

To put Kershaw’s early performance in even greater perspective, consider that while the 24-year old southpaw’s next win will be his 50^th of his career, Ted Lilly, a two-time All-Star, had just five wins at the age of 25.  In many ways, Lilly is more similar to Koufax based on his late bloomer status.  Of course, Lilly never quite had the glory days of Koufax, but when you look at his career trends he does resemble a fine wine that gets better over time. 

 

Age	Games	Record	IP	K	ERA
20-25	42	5-7	152.1	151	5.73
26-30	143	54-51	783.2	648	4.38
30+	161	69-52	1001	848	3.67

 

The Dodgers have a nice blend of young talent and proven veterans.  While the hope is that Kershaw will remain effective far longer than Koufax did and perhaps remain as relevant in his mid-30s as Lilly, what matters most for Dodgers fans is the present.  Right now, the two southpaws are as good as any tandem in baseball.  

 

Fantasy Baseball Stock Report: Jason Bay, Francisco Cordero, and Henry Rodriguez

 

 

Selling Jason Bay:

With the Mets in rebuilding mode, they really needed a hot start from Jason Bay to take the pressure off the veteran and highly paid left-fielder.  Though he did sock three home runs through the first 15 games, Bay still lacked consistency as his average was .240 and he is fanning more than once per game.  Alas, another tough break for Bay will take him off the field.  A fractured left rib suffered on a diving play in left field lands him on the DL.  Zach Lutz, a nice power prospect was called up, but I see Kirk Nieuwenhuis likely taking over in left-field once Andres Torres returns and Lucas Duda stays in right field.  Bay may return to a platoon situation.

 

Selling Josh Collmenter:

From hero to goat!  Josh Collmenter was being celebrated last season, as he managed 10 wins with a 3.38 ERA and an even more impressive 1.07 WHIP thanks to his incredible control combined with a .237 opposing batting average.  This year he has been slammed by the opposition, surrendering six home runs in four starts.  On top of that, Collmenter is likely standing in the way of Diamondbacks phenom Trevor Bauer.  The DBacks made the tough call of pulling Collmenter from the starting rotation.

  

Buying Francisco Cordero:

Talk about a heck of an insurance policy, the Blue Jays happened to buy exactly that when they signed Francisco Cordero as a back up to Sergio Santos as the team’s closer.  Cordero got off to a rough start this season, but now that he is the final line for the Blue Jays he is back in a comfortable spot.  He nailed his first two save opporutnities, but has struggled since, allowing runs in four of his last five outings.  At 37 years old, Cordero is getting up there in years and the strikeouts have declined, but he still gets the job done with 34 or more saves in each of the last five seasons.  He’ll hold down the fort until Santos return in at best a month. 

 

Buying Henry Rodriguez:

The Nationals have been known for their bullpen for a few years now, but when Drew Storen went down with an injury, it was thought that the newly acquired Brad Lidge would fill the role in the interim.  It turns out that Nats have a better option in the 25-year-old Henry Rodriguez who has surrendered a earned runs in just one appearance all season while nailing down five saves.  A certain flame-thrower, Rodriguez does have his control issues, but he also has allowed just five hits so far this season.  We’ll see if he can continue to overcome his control issues, as he is 5-6 in saves. 

 

Fantasy Baseball Stock Report: Jurrjens, Ross, Roberts, and Schierholtz

Watch Bloomberg Sports Anchors Julie Alexandria and Rob Shaw breakdown the top players to buy low and sell high on the fantasy baseball stock report.

 

 

 

Selling Jair Jurrjens:

The Braves hurler is now in the minor leagues after an atrocious start.  Jurrjens has been one of the more underappreciated hurlers of the last few years.  He won at least 13 games in three of the last four seasons, twice with an ERA sub-3.  However, this season, he lost some of his stuff as he failed to make it out of the fifth inning in three of four starts and not only is he walking way too many batters, but the opposition is hitting .411 off him.  With his fastball in the decline, perhaps a confidence boost in the minor leagues will do the 26-year-old some good. Feel free to release him from your fantasy team. 

Buying Cody Ross:

Fantasy managers may have forgotten that Cody Ross once carried a power bat in Florida, surpassing 20 home runs in back-to-back seasons.  Sure, he has some World Series heroics a couple of years ago, but playing for the Giants kept him in a pitcher’s park that ate away at his power stats.  That changes this season as Ross is now playing at Fenway and already has five home runs, three of which have come at home.  A streaky hitter, Ross has had home runs in consecutive games twice already this season.  With Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury out, Ross should enjoy regular playing time.  This is a player to target for his power. 

Selling Ryan Roberts:

The good news for super utility man Ryan Roberts was the 19 home runs and 18 stolen bases last season.  The bad news for Roberts was the .239 average over the second half of the season.  Unfortunately, Roberts resembles the second half player from last season as his average is sub-Mendoza line with just 10 hits in 66 at bats.  At 31 years old, it’s fair to say that what we saw last season was too good to be true.  Roberts is now losing out on playing time to Cody Ransom. 

Buying Nate Schierholtz:

A 1-17 struggle has brought the average down to .283, but Nate Schierholtz remains an intriguing fantasy option and should continue to get regular playing time in the outfield for the Giants.  The addition of Buster Posey has a huge impact in the lineup, and Schierholtz has proven capable of hitting with power and surprising speed over the last few years.  If this is finally the first time that the veteran will get 400 at bats, Schierholtz can surprise with some fantasy value. 

 

Rising Star: A's Top Prospect Jarrod Parker

 

 

The ninth pick out of the 2007 draft, Jarrod Parker is the top prospect in the A’s system and they couldn’t hold him out any longer.  After four solid starts at Triple-A, the A’s are ready for Parker in the Big Leagues.  It’s time to get to know the 23-year-old right-hander. 

 

Parker was acquired for Trevor Cahill this off-season.  In his one Major League start with the DBacks last season, Parker did not allow a single run to score in 5.2 innings of work.  Parker was a tad hittable this season in the minor leagues, but this isn’t about the short-term.  This is supposed to be the start of something special and with the pitcher-friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum, Parker should be picked up in all formats. 

 

In his American League debut, Parker was brilliant allowing just one run to score while pitching into the seventh inning.  Parker scattered seven hits and fanned five batters, and while he did not get a decision, the A’s did win 5-4 over the White Sox.  On Tuesday, Parker tries on a different group of Sox, as the A’s host Boston.  It should be safe for fantasy managers to try out their brand new fantasy phenom.  

 

Cubs Sensation Bryan LaHair is Still Raking

 

 

The Cubs slugger Bryan LaHair reminds me a bit of Michael Morse, a late bloomer with plenty of power who finally broke out last season with the Nationals.  LaHair, is a 29-year-old slugger who entered the season with just five home runs to his credit.  He spent the last six seasons at Triple-A and last season blasted 38 round-trippers with a .331 average. 

 

So far LaHair is batting .382 with the majority of those hits good for extra bases.  While those numbers will regress quite a bit, that does not mean that he can’t still end up as one of the greatest surprises of the season.  LaHair can blast 25 home runs with 90 RBI. 

 

In many ways, he is an upgrade over Carlos Pena for the Cubbies at first base.  He may not be the defensive gem that Pena is, but with an average .150 better than what Pena has offered the last few seasons, the Chicago fan base is not complaining.  Neither should fantasy managers.  

 

A Middle Infielder to Target: Mike Aviles, Boston Red Sox

 

 

The Red Sox willingness to trade away both Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie was certainly bold, but really the bigger story was the franchise's confidence in former Royals middle infielder Mike Aviles. 

 

A career .288 hitter, Aviles has been a fine contributor in the Majors when healthy.  The New York native making himself at home in Boston doesn’t have much power, but in a solid lineup he can pile up many runs.  He is also a sneaky stolen base threat.  Think of Aviles in the same mold as Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick, except for a much lower cost and with shortstop eligibility. 

 

Aviles and the Red Sox played at the hitter-friendly US Cellular in Chicago this weekend.  Though he finished hitless in his final seven at bats, the 31-year-old veteran makes for a great start in the next series against Oakland.  The series will be played in Fenway Park where he already boasts two home runs and a .333 average this season.  

 

The Sustainability of the Orioles Big Three: Arrieta, Hunter, and Hammel

 

 

The biggest surprise in baseball could very well be the Baltimore Orioles and what is most shocking is that the success is not a result of the offense as much as it is the pitching.  Let’s take a look at the three over-performing hurlers to determine whether or not the team’s success is sustainable.

Jake Arrieta is seemingly an innings eater who is in the prime of his career.  He does not have much control, he is not a strikeout artist, and he surrenders too many home runs.  His season got off to a great start with a 7-inning two-hit gem against a weak Minnesota offense.  Since then, he has been quite ordinary.  That’s what fantasy managers should expect going forward, as Arrieta epitomizes the average pitcher. 

Tommy Hunter is a far more interesting pitcher.  The Orioles hurler had some success in 2010 with the Rangers, picking up a 13-4 record with a 3.73 ERA.  Hunter is not a strikeout artist, nor does he try to be one.  The big right-hander makes a living keeping his defense busy.  So far, Hunter has been a bit uneven with two gems that resulted in a combined one earned run.  In the other two starts he surrendered a combined six home runs.  Fantasy managers will and should pass on his services since he does not rack up the K’s, but he’s been a winner so far in his career and should be a solid middle of the rotation hurler for the O’s. 

Jason Hammel is looking like a star in Baltimore.  Now that he escaped Colorado, the air is a little bit thicker and the ball is finding gloves in the field.  Additionally, the K’s are coming twice as frequently as last season.  Part of the reason for the sudden success is the addition of a new pitch to the arsenal.  Hammel now throws a sinker and he is getting a lot of ground balls with the new pitch.  The question is whether this type of success is sustainable or if a new scouting report will allow the hitters to make adjustments.  Considering he is already 29 years old and has been in the leagues for several years, it is unlikely a radical change will unfold this late in his career.

The Orioles do have some stars in the lineup as Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters should all be in their prime.  The starting rotation is another matter and the problem here is that the team is loaded with overachieving middle of the rotation hurlers.  It is very unlikely that they will be able to sustain this success. 

 

Has the Regression begun for Blue Jays SP Kyle Drabek?

 

 

Kyle Drabek was a top prospect when the Blue Jays acquired him from the Phillies for perennial Cy Young contender Roy Halladay.  The Blue Jays fan base was hoping that Drabek would be able to make an immediate impact, but that did not occur at all in 2010, as the son of former Pirates All-Star Doug Drabek found some success at Double-A, while also walking four batters per nine innings.  That is a statistic that Drabek could get away with in the minor leagues, but a different story in the Majors.  Drabek lost all three starts in 2010.

 

Last season, it was assumed that Drabek would hold a spot in the starting rotation, and sure enough he did open the season with the Blue Jays.  The stay did not last long as he ended the season with just 14 starts and a 6.06 ERA.  The main issue was his lack of control, as he ranked as the worst in the Major Leagues in BB/9 as well as BB/K. 

 

Now 24 years old, Drabek is getting another opportunity this season and he shined bright in the first two games.  In fact, Drabek walked just one batter in his second start as he pitched into the eighth inning and surrendered just one earned run to a solid Orioles offense.  Suddenly, Drabek was again en vogue and was a hot pickup in fantasy baseball. 

 

Alas, doubt has returned to the mind of this fantasy expert.  Even though Drabek remains undefeated with a 2-0 record and the Blue Jays have won all three of his starts, his control was lost in his last start, as he issued six walks in 5.1 innings.  The fact that the Royals did not capitalize has a lot to do with Drabek’s ability to miss bats (he boasts 15 K’s in 18 innings) and a little bit of luck. 

 

On Thursday, the Orioles face Drabek for the second time this season.  In many ways, Drabek remains a wild card as he has great stuff, including a 94 MPH heater with movement, but if his control is lost the numbers could take a hit.  I’d expect a bit of regression for the next few months of the season.  I see Drabek offering up an ERA closer to four and could end up on a career path similar to fellow Blue Jays hurler Brandon Morrow.  In other words, Drabek is not for the risk adverse.  He will have moments of glory, but also fits of frustration. 

Trade Stephen Strasburg At the All-Star Break

 

 

To say that Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg has lived up to expectations so far this season would be an understatement.  The Opening Day starter is a perfect 2-0 while allowing just three runs to score in 25 innings.  He also seems to be pitching with little exertion, as his 25:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio suggests fine control, but we have not seen the 100 MPH heat that Strasburg is capable of. 

 

It is clear that hitters have little chance off him, as he has not surrendered a home run in two years and the opposing batting average remains well under .200 in his nine starts over that period.  At 23 years old, Strasburg still remains very young and for that reason the Nationals are handling him with gloves.

 

In fact, the biggest strike against Strasburg’s fantasy value is the fact that the Nationals have already announced that he will throw only 160 innings this season.  That equates to just another 135 innings of dominance for those keeping track. 

 

Even Strasburg limited to 160 innings works out to be one of the best pitchers in fantasy baseball.  However, to maximize his value, fantasy managers should consider trading the ace around the All-Star break.  By then they should have enjoyed a dominant stretch with Strsburg potentially ranking as the best hurler in baseball.  However, with his innings limited in the second half of the season, Strasburg becomes little better than a dominant reliever. 

 

While the Nationals are keeping his future in mind with hopes that the franchise has many years of dominance ahead, fantasy managers must realize that Strasburg is only a short-term fix in this year’s fantasy leagues.  

 

Rookie Outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis is a Hit with the Mets

 

 

Even the Mets and their medical team had to know before they traded away Angel Pagan that Andres Torres never played as many as 140 games in a season.  So, therefore, it should come as no surprise that the outfielder who was hobbled in spring training strained his left calf in the season opener. 

 

Fortunately, for the Mets they not only have an able replacement, but a player who could very well represent the team’s future at the position in Kirk Nieuwenhuis.  The 24-year-old nabbed in the 3^rd round of the 2008 draft had some of his own injuries in recent years, but he is a big guy with some pop and speed. 

 

This may be a Wally Pipp situation where Torres will never really replace Nieuwenhuis.  This has been a special season so far for the Mets as they have managed to rebuild while still competing in a very tough division… Alas, it is still very early. 

 

Another option for the Mets would be to shift Nieuwenhuis to left field and split time with Jason Bay.  It’s a sad realization for the Mets to realize that Jason Bay does not warrant a starting position, but at this point Andres Torres and Nieuwenhuis could be more valuable. 

 

Nieuwenhuis enters the weekend series with the Giants with a .375 average thanks to a six game hit streak.  He boasts six runs scored and has a home run and a stolen base.  He is a shocking early contender for the NL Rookie of the Year.

 

Rookie Drew Smyly Bringing Smiles to Detroit

 

 

Get to know Drew Smyly, a 22-year-old southpaw nabbed out of Arkansas with a second round pick in 2010.  Smyly made his Major League debut last week and the nerves were obvious as he surrendered three walks and gave up four hits in just four innings of work.  More impressively, Smyly did fan four batters and allowed just one run as he was removed with a no decision. 

 

In his one year of minor league service, Smyly was dominant.  He finished 11-6 with a 2.07 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning and impeccable control.  Smyly took the mound on Tuesday against the Royals and was sensational.  He this time only walked one batter, and though he surrendered seven hits, they did not lead to any earned runs.  Unfortunately, a lack of run support in the early innings led to another no-decision for the rookie.  

 

A true test follows this weekend, as Smyly is slated to face the Rangers on Sunday.  Considering how well the Rangers have been hitting, it may be a good idea to keep the southpaw on your fantasy bench.  On the other hand, Smyly is becoming a must-start these days with a 0.90 ERA through his first two starts.  

 

White Sox SP Philip Humber In Fantasy Dream Week

  

 

One of the top stories for the White Sox last season was the breakout season by former first round pick Philip Humber.  Selected by the Mets with the third pick of the 2004 draft, Humber dealt with injuries and never met expectations when he was traded for Johan Santana in 2008.  The trade did not exactly work out for the Twins, as Humber moved to the White Sox and aside from him the only other key contributor is their former centerfielder Carlos Gomez, who proved to be a part-time player. 

 

Last season, Humber finally got a crack at sticking in the Big Leagues.  He made 26 starts and 28 appearances.  Though his record was just 9-9, more impressive was his 3.75 ERA and 1.18 WHIP despite pitching in a hitter’s ballpark. What separates Humber from most pitchers is his devastating curveball.  In fact, he ranked fourth in Major League Baseball last season with a .159 opposing average against his curveball.

 

If there is an area for Humber to improve, it's his stamina.  In his first full season in the Big Leagues, Humber experienced a major drop off after the fifth inning, as his ERA spiked from 2.96 to 6.34.  At that point, his control fell a bit and his opposing average spiked to .305.  Of course, the increased workload may explain the trend.   

 

Humber has a dream week in fantasy baseball, as he opens with a start against an overzealous Orioles offense that lacks much plate discipline.  He aced that test, allowing just one run to score in 5.1 innings of work, while fanning 7 batters.  Next, he hurls in Seattle’s cavernous Safeco Field, against a mediocre Mariners offense. 

 

Fantasy managers should plug Humber for both starts this week. 

 

Johan Santana Regains Ace Status

 

 

The frustration is fresh for Johan Santana once again.  You may recall a few years ago, the greatest issue for Santana was that the ace southpaw pitched brilliantly, but a lack of run support limited his wins.  Once again, this is the main frustration for Santana, as the injuries are finally a part of the past, and the greatest complaint is how he can offer just an 0-1 record despite a stellar 0.90 ERA through his first two starts of the season.  

 

The greatest surprise for Santana is that he looks like the strikeout machine of past years with 13 K’s in 10 innings.  In his more recent years with the Mets, Santana pitched to contact and while his ERA and WHIP were still fine, he was not the dominant Cy Young award winner that we remembered in Minnesota.  

 

Before fantasy managers get too giddy for Santana, consider that he will have a strict innings and pitches count this season, so his value will be limited and a lack of offense could plague him too.  On the other hand, if he continues to pitch well, he could end up getting traded to a contender mid-season if the Mets are willing to eat some of the salary.  

 

Of course, for now fantasy managers should just take Santana start-by-start and appreciate the fact that he is finally healthy and effective.  

 

Not a Closer, Not a Starter, and Yet Chapman Shines

 

 

We have seen pitchers before enjoy some fantasy value despite lacking a role in the starting rotation or closing at the back of the bullpen.  Pirates middle reliever Evan Meek was an All-Star in that role a few years ago and last year Jonny Venters was one of the most dominant hurlers in the game despite setting up Craig Kimbrel on the Braves.  

 

This year Reds reiiever Aroldis Chapman finds himself in a setup role and he is dominating as much as anyone.  Simply put, Chapman is a strikeout machine with 15 strikeouts in eight innings of work.  Chapman has yet to give up a run this season, and more impressively, the flame-thrower has yet to walk a single batter.

 

Considering the bad luck associated with the Reds bullpen already this season, there could not be a better story line than Contreras finally reaching his peak.  Chapman has been used as a multiple inning option and could end up with 80-plus innings of work this season.  Considering how dominant he's been, Chapman is not just a fantasy option, but perhaps a Cy Young contender through the first few weeks of the 2012 season.

 

Rising Star: White Sox Leadoff Man Alejandro De Aza

 

 

Through eight games this season, Alejandro De Aza has failed to reach base just once.  Regardless, De Aza is not the typical leadoff batter as he boasts just one walk so far this season.  On the other hand, the 28-year-old outfielder has scored seven runs with two home runs and a stolen base.  

 

Last season, De Aza broke onto the fantasy baseball scene with 18 extra base hits and 12 steals plus a .329 average in just 54 games played.  This season he will have a greater opportunity to make a longer lasting impact as the leadoff batter for the White Sox.  

 

A bit of a late bloomer, De Aza is a player fantasy managers may want to target off the waiver wire.  He should approach 25 stolen bases, could blast 10 home runs, and score 90-plus runs.  There is some risk, but considering his current valuation he could come at a bargain price.  

Fantasy Baseball Panic: Tim Lincecum's Struggles

 

 

When last season concluded with Tim Lincecum brandishing a losing record, there was not much panic in San Francisco as his 13-14 record came with a superb 2.74 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  On that note, fantasy managers again picked Lincecum early in the drafts this season expecting him to contend with rival Clayton Kershaw for the NL Cy Young award.  Through two starts the Giants ace may have already pitched himself out of contention.  

 

Tim Lincecum currently sits at 0-1 with a 12.91 ERA.  Fantasy managers are wondering if it will it be sink or swim by the Bay this season for Lincecum.  This is a major concern for a number of reasons, but near the top of the list is that Lincecum is usually strong out of the gates.  April is usually the best month for him, at 12-3 entering this season with a sub-3 ERA.  

 

Another key concern has been the diminishing velocity.  Lincecum is so far throwing his fastball at 90 MPH this season, down from 91 MPH last year and 92 MPH the year before.  He relies a great deal on his high velocity since his outpitch is no longer his slider, but his change-up.  In fact, Lincecum has mentioned that he will try to avoid use of his slider this season since it puts pressure on his arm.  It will be tough to get away with just a fastball and change-up if he can't reach the mid-90s.  

 

Keep an eye on Lincecum's next start as this may be a concerning trend.  For more fantasy baseball insight visit BloombergSports.com.  

Slow Start for Brewers 3B Aramis Ramirez

 

 

To put it mildly, Ramirez has not had Brewers fans forget about Prince Fielder.  While Fielder has already offered the Tigers a .345 average with two home runs, Ramirez has chipped in with just a .129 average and no home runs for the Brew Crew.  This is a far cry from the .306 average Ramirez offered last season, not to mention the expectations coming into this season with Milwaukee. 

 

While Ramirez is off to a slow start, he has had a tad of bad luck.  Alfonso Soriano robbed him at the left-field wall of an extra base hit on Tuesday, and he already has swiped two bases while nailing two doubles.  Plus, Ramirez is a notorious slow starter as March and April are his worst batting months throughout his career.  

 

At this point, fantasy managers should be in a holding pattern, as Ramirez is likely to bounce back.  For the first time this season, Ramirez did not strike out in two consecutive games.  It looks like he is starting to see the ball better, and that usually leads to a rise in batting average and the power metrics.  Patience is a virtue in dealing with A-Ram’s early slump.  

 

Ike Davis Struggles, Are they Mental or Physical?

 

 

What's the deal with Mets first baseman Ike Davis?  Last season he got off to a excellent start before a bum ankle shut him down for the season with seven home runs, 25 RBI, and a .302 average through 36 games.  This season has been the total opposite.  Davis has two hits through 28 at bats, and both hits have been singles.

 

While the Mets are calling Davis healthy, there are some questions as to whether a fungal disease suffered during spring training is still limiting him physically, or if at this point, the toll is mental, as Davis has 10 strikeouts through the first eight games of the season.  

 

To be specific, the ailment that Davis encountered this spring was Valley Fever, a lung disease that could lead to fatigue.  It very much should be taken seriously, as the illness once knocked 130 games out of the season from Conor Jackson.  So yes, fantasy managers should be on red alert, as the disease commonly found in desert environments such as Davis' hometown in Phoenix could be an issue.  

 

Some good news is that David Wright returned from his broken pinkie on Saturday and blasted a home run.  With Wright's return to the Mets lineup, there are more likely to be runners on base for Davis to drive home.  Furthermore, Lucas Duda has looked very much like a slugger this season with three home runs already.  With Duda batting behind Davis, there could be an uptick in the runs scored as well.

 

Of course, the main focus for Davis right not is to snap out of the slump, then he will no longer hear the whispers of mystery ailments and more concerns about the health of Mets players.  

 

Shin-Soo Choo Frustrating Fantasy Managers

 

 

There has been a very scary trend in Cleveland for fantasy managers in recent years.  We've seen players who reach superstardom with the Indians only to lose their luster seemingly overnight due to injuries.  

 

First it was MVP contender Travis Hafner, who went from a .300-plus hitting machine with loads of power to a lackluster DH who struggles to stay healthy.  More recently, it's been all-around sensation Grady Sizemore, who has lost his speed and power in recent years and now is once again on the disabled list for an extended period.  

 

The question that is plaguing fantasy managers right now is whether Shin-Soo Choo will follow that undesirable path.  Following consecutive 20-20 seasons, Choo had a season to forget last year with off-the-field controversy followed by an injury-plagued season.  Fresh off his worst season with 8 home runs and a .259 average, Choo is struggling once again.  The two-time 20-20 fantasy star has five hits, all of them singles. 

 

The good news is that Shoo is drawing walks and already has two stolen bases while his OBP is north of .400.  For now fantasy managers should be in a holding power with Choo.  The solid plate discipline suggests that he is seeing the ball well and could bust out of his power outage at any moment.  In fact, if you have confidence in the 29-year-old outfielder go ahead and acquire him while his stock is low.  

 

Hot Starts in the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Season

  

 

We are very early into the 2012 season and while there is still no proof that the Mets will lose a game this season, fantasy managers have to be realistic about the early returns of teams and players. 

 

Even just a handful of games into the season, there are some lessons that can be learned.  It looks like the Twins offense will be the worst in baseball, which means pick up the spot-starters off the waiver wire when they are going against the Twins.  On the other hand, the Tigers offense will be dangerous this season.  That is an offense to avoid whenever possible. 

 

Here’s a breakdown of some of the top performers this season and whether you can expect to ride a hot streak or whether you should jump off ship when reality hits:

Barry Zito was sensational with a complete game shutout against the Rockies.  Perhaps the biggest surprise was the fact that the stellar start came in Colorado, at the hitter-friendly Coors Field.  It also marked Zito’s first shutout in nine years.  What’s interesting about Zito is that he is not as hittable as you’d think.  The opposition has hit just .260 or better once in his time with the Giants.  Of course, he also came away with a losing record in all five seasons. 

 

The key to Zito’s success is simply control.  He has to throw strikes.  Zito did not walk a single batter in his season debut.  It is unlikely he will be able to sustain that type of control all season.  On the other hand, he has had some fantasy success recently.  During the first half of the 2010 season, Zito was 7-4 with a 3.76 ERA.  However, this is not a ride that fantasy managers should want to jump on. 

 

Another player off to a hot start is Chicago White Sox closer Hector Santiago.  He already has nabbed two saves this season while surrendering just two hits with two strikeouts.  A starter last year at Double-A, Santiago throws hard, but can get wild.  The southpaw drafted out of the 30^th round is from Newark, New Jersey and is on the verge of becoming a household name in fantasy leagues. 

 

Cardinals third baseman David Freese has yet to awake from his dream.  After starring in the World Series last season, Freese is now slugging in the regular season with two home runs, 8 RBI, and a .417 average.  To get a better idea of Freese let’s combine his last two regular seasons.  Freese has offered 14 home runs, 91 RBI, and a .297 average in 167 games.  On that note, it is reasonable to believe that he can develop into a 20-homer talent with a high average and solid run production. 

 

A favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year has to be Reds shortstop  Zack Cozart.  He is batting .500 through 14 at bats this season.  Not your typical rookie, Cozart is 26-years old and proven in the minor leagues.  In 2010, he offered power and speed at Triple-A with 17 home runs and 30 stolen bases.  He also showed some value this spring with a .345 average in Arizona.  Cozart is a solid shortstop to nab off the waiver wire if he is still available. 

 

Finally, Nationals veteran first baseman Adam LaRoche is batting .467 with 6 RBI.  The reason that he was not on your fantasy radar is that he hit just 3 HR with a .172 average in 43 games last year.  The problem last season was his torn labrum in his left shoulder that eventually landed him on the DL.  If you go back a year before there’s a different story as he belted 25 home runs with 100 RBI.  LaRoche is a very inexpensive source for power.  Invest accordingly. 

 

For more fantasy baseball insight visit BloombergSports.com.

Bloomberg Sports 2012 Mets Preview

 

 

The New York Mets can finally move on from the loss of Jose Reyes, as they opened the season with two straight wins against the Braves.  The team has accomplished the hot start because of the rise of young talent including Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda, and Ike Davis as well as some help from old friends most notably David Wright and Johan Santana. 

 

The two wins were not exactly expected.  Mets fans had been in mourning for several months as the news of the Madoff scandal attracted the most attention and the poster boy for the Mets reversal of financial fortune was the loss of the greatest shortstop in franchise history, Jose Reyes to the rival Marlins.

 

Wright understands as much as anyone how difficult it is to replace a talent like Reyes, but he also knows that the team has to move on, “You know one player, granted he’s very good and he’s a great player and great teammate, but you cannot worry about who is not here.  I have a tremendous relationship with Jose, I’ve got a ton of respect for him, like I said, I think he’s one of the best position players to put this Mets uniform on, but that’s not how this game works, we’ve still got games to play and games to win and we need other players to step up and fill that void,” said Wright. 

 

Another former teammate of Reyes and Wright, Endy Chavez explains the shock he felt when word came out that Reyes was no longer a Mets shortstop, “That was unbelievable, I understand this is a business, but to Reyes leaving New York, just saying Jose Reyes is like saying New York Mets, so it’s something crazy, but you know things happen in baseball and that’s one of those things.”

 

Finally, Reyes himself understands that he has to move on.  His role goes from helping the Mets to now competing against them with a long-time rival, “You know in the beginning it was a little weird for me because all of my career I played with David the same thing, but now I have to adjust to the new team, so I know I was there with David for a long time and we every year became very good friends, I’m going to miss David and I wish him all the best.”

 

While the loss of Reyes is certainly hard to swallow for Mets fans, one thing that would make it easier is the return to prominence of Wright.  The 29-year-old franchise player has tallied five hits and two RBI through the first two games of the season.  It looks like the drawn in fences could be exactly what Wright needs to get his confidence back.  The young up-and-coming Mets look at Wright to set the tone.

 

“Huge, huge key for us, David is.  Not only as a player, but clubhouse guy.  He’s awesome in the clubhouse and he keeps us motivated, we follow him and where he goes we go,” says Mets slugger Lucas Duda. 

 

First baseman Ike Davis adds on Wright, “Definitely a big part of our lineup and he’s going to be the leader of the team and it’s really exciting seeing him play again.”

 

Meanwhile, the pitching has been great and the biggest surprise of them all is Johan Santana.  After picking up 29 wins the first two seasons with the Mets, Santana has just 11 over the last two seasons, missing all of 2011 due to surgery.  However, he was back on the hill on Opening Day and gave the type of performance that will gain confidence in the ball club. 

 

“He’s been the bright spot so far this spring, just his health, the way he’s throwing the ball, so I’m excited about what he’s going to bring to the table this year, and it will be a lot of fun to play defense behind him,” says Wright. 

 

As impressive as the Mets have been, this is still very much a rebuilding year.  In fact, if Jason Bay and/or Johan Santana can sustain their production, there is a really good chance that they will get traded.  The Mets may be able to hang around .500 for the majority of the season, but the bright days ahead will be when their top pitching prospects develop into stars that can compete with Jordan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg on the Nationals.  Maybe then, the big three in Philadelphia will no longer be in their prime.  The question is whether David Wright will still be a Mets third baseman. 

Why the Nats Are Favorites to Win the NL East

 

 

It was a lively off-season in the Big Leagues for certain as the best leadoff hitter and two of the best sluggers moved to new teams this winter.  While a great deal of the attention turned to the Marlins who unveiled a new logo, new jerseys, a new stadium, and new acquisitions, the quiet Nationals should attract the most attention because of their sudden rise in expectations in the NL East.  

 

The news with the greatest impact coming from the Nationals during the off-season wasn't the trade for Gio Gonzalez or even the latest news from top phenom Bryce Harper.  Instead, the it came at the end of February when the face of the franchise, Ryan Zimmerman, signed on the dotted line to a six-year $100 million deal.  The deal sends an important message to the Nationals that they are not just about developing young talent, but keeping that talent around for the years to come to compete with the best in the NL.   

 

The star third baseman told us, "I've been here through the not too good years, I wanted to make sure to be here for the good times that are about to come." Zimmerman added, "They've done it the right way, they drafted good, they built out their farm system, kind of made it so that we won't be good for one or two years, but 10 or 15."

 

The fact that Zimmerman opted to stay long-term with the Nationals was met with affirmation from his teammates.  Hurler Jordan Zimmerman said, "Yeah he made it clear that he wanted to stay here and stay here for the long haul, and build a team around him.  The owners are all for it and I think it is going to be good for the club in the long run."

 

There are a lot of household names on the Nationals this season. Jayson Werth did not meet expectations last season, we discussed Zimmerman, Michael Morse is now a star after what he did last year, but one guy who is sneaking under the radar despite the fact that he posted sensational numbers last season was Jordan Zimmerman.

 

Zimmerman is an ace.  Last year, he actually truly was the number one, and maybe that explains why his record is not as impressive as his ERA and his WHIP.  On the other hand, this year he will be matching with a lot of number twos and threes since Strasburg is the opening day starter.  This is really big for the Nationals, because that gives them an advantage in every game that he pitches.  Maybe 15-17 wins is a realistic target for the young hurler.  

 

Zimmerman is optimistic about the team's chances of clinching the division.  "We had some key pickups this year and I think we are going to have a great starting staff and picked up Lidge and a couple of other guys in the bullpen who are going to help out big time.  So I am pretty excited to get going this season."

 

I see Washington as the favorite in the NL East.  The Phillies may have that big three, but there's a big three in Washington now that is younger and perhaps will end up more durable this season.  You look at the offense for the Nationals, they took away Jayson Werth from the Phillies and with the Phillies having injuries to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, there are some serious concerns there.  I think the offense is better for the Nationals, perhaps the numbers won't reflect that because of the pitcher's park.  

 

The Braves are a good team.  I don't think they have the rotation that the Nationals have.  The Marlins are a good team too.  They don't have the depth in the rotation.  Also, the Nationals bullpen ace is Tyler Clippard, one of the best middle relievers in baseball, and when Drew Storen comes back healthy, he could be lights out yet again.  

 

This Nationals team should be the favorite in the NL East.  And it's great because it's going to surprise a lot of people.  So as far as expectations, they should be sky high.  Washington fans, you have something to be excited about this season.

New York Mets Young Stars On the Rise: Murphy, Davis, and Duda

 

 

Bloomberg Sports Host Julie Alexandria and Bloomberg Sports Analyst Rob Shaw discuss the 2012 New York Mets, specifically the young players on the rise.  

 

One player for fantasy managers to acquaint themselves with is Daniel Murphy.  The second baseman can help a fantasy team in many ways, specifically with depth due to his position eligibility.  In fact, Murphy played some first, second, and third base last season after struggling in the outfield in past seasons.  

 

A top-10 hitter last season with a .320 average, Murphy has been working on driving the ball with a little more power this season.  Considering his maturation and natural growth, fantasy managers should look at Murphy as someone who can contribute a .290 average with 15 home runs and 5+ stolen bases.  There's a good chance Murphy can end up playing better than Mets rival Chase Utley this season. 

 

Next, there should be some fantasy excitement for the return of Ike Davis to first base for the Mets.  Davis looked like a legitimate slugger last season before enduring a season-ending ankle injury.  At 6'4 and a large frame, Davis already has great power, with 26 home runs through his first 652 at bats, but now with the fences drawn in there is even more reason to raise expectations this season.  In fact, Davis as a left-handed hitter, will be impacted the most by the fences being drawn in right-field this season.  Expect Davis to prove to be a better pickup than Marlins first baseman Gaby Sanchez.  

 

Finally, a major sleeper this season, Lucas Duda could end up being the best homegrown slugger since Darry Strawberry was wearing number 18 on a Mets jersey.  Duda has raised eyebrows in batting practice with his moon-shots.  After pulling or driving to center field all 10 home runs last season, Duda has already belted two home runs the opposite way this spring.  

 

He's a player that can belt 25-30 home runs with a respectable average.  What’s most impressive so far has been his plate discipline, which is giving hope to Mets fans that he can be the next big star in Flushing. 

 

For more baseball insight visit BloombergSports.com.

 

Miami Marlins 2012 Preview with Reyes and Ramirez

 

 

 

Bloomberg Sports Host Julie Alexandria and Bloomberg Sports Analyst Rob Shaw visited Jupiter, Florida to preview the Miami Marlins 2012 season.  

 

This is very much the start of a new era for the Marlins, as the team moves into a new state-of-the-art ballpark, changes it's jerseys, as well as it logos and colors.  However, the greatest difference that will be felt on the field is the addition of Mets legend Jose Reyes to the top of the Marlins lineup.

 

The leadoff hitter plays a very important role in baseball as the table setter for a lineup.  Reyes is coming off a season in which he led the National League with a .337 average, while reaching base at a .384 OBP.  Despite missing 36 games (more than 20% of the season), he still racked up 101 runs.  That number should go even higher now that he joins a lineup batting in front of perennial MVP candidate Hanley Ramirez and several other rising sluggers.

 

There has been much controversy made in the media concerning the addition of Reyes to the Marlins and what this would mean for Ramirez.  However, the star shortstop transitioning to third had no such qualms when we asked him about the addition of Reyes: "It's good, he brings a lot of energy to this team and every morning he is always smiling and that's good.”  Ramirez then added, "I think we need that and obviously he's a pretty good ballplayer and a pretty good person."

 

In truth, the Reyes impact is felt more than just at shortstop.  By moving Ramirez to third base, he fills a void at a position that did not get much production last season.  Suddenly, the fish have one of the best left-infields in baseball while also enjoying a top leadoff hitter in the lineup.  

 

Despite some frustration that the Mets did not make him an offer, Reyes is excited about his new team.  "It's been unbelievable so far, everybody has welcomed me like I'm home here, and that's made me feel very comfortable," said the star shortstop.  

 

With Reyes getting on base before Ramirez and slugger Mike Stanton, the Marlins should have one of the elite offenses in the Big Leagues, while the defense also gets an edge.  Now if Josh Johnson can stay healthy they will have a shot at surpassing the Phillies.  However, that is a big "if," as Johnson has only once made 30 starts in a season. 

 

For more Major League Baseball insight visit BloombergSports.com.

 

2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Breakdown, Rounds 19-28

 

 

Bloomberg Sports Host Julie Alexandria is joined by Bloomberg Sports Analyst Rob Shaw to break down an expert’s fantasy baseball draft. The draft, which included fantasy experts from CBS, Yahoo!, and ESPN was a 28-round draft that consisted of additional positions such as Middle Infielder, Corner Infielder, and five outfielder positions.  Additionally, the league includes more advanced statistics such as OBP and slugging rather than the typical batting average.

 

Here's a look at the first 18 picks by Shaw:

1) Jose Bautista, Blue Jays

2) Roy Halladay, Phillies

3) Cliff Lee, Phillies

4) Eric Hosmer, Royals

5) Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

6) Adam Jones, Orioles

7) Howie Kendrick, Angels

8) Drew Stubbs, Reds

9) Derek Jeter, Yankees

10) Josh Johnson, Marlins

11) Adam Dunn, White Sox

12) Danny Espinosa, Nationals

13) Nick Markakis, Orioles

14) Salvador Perez, Royals

15) Sergio Santos, Blue Jays

16) Joe Nathan, Rangers

17) Chris Iannetta, Angels

18) Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays

 

Let's pick up in the 19th round, already with Sergio Santos and Joe Nathan taken within the past four rounds, I added yet another closer in new Mets hurler Frank Francisco.  It's not that I see Francisco having much upside, but again the idea here is to merely win the saves category.  With three closers I am now in a decent position to do so since I am usually quick acting off the waiver wire in the regular season.  

 

Next, in the 20th round, I drafted Bryce Harper.  Even though Harper will open the season in the minor Leagues, he is the exact type of high potential player to target in the later rounds of a fantasy baseball draft.  

 

Additionally, in the late rounds you should target players with multiple position eligibility.  Again, the point of late round picks is that they are backups for your fantasy team.  A player like Ryan Raburn is an insurance policy at several positions.  Furthermore, he also has some real potential and if he can finally get off to a hot start, he can put together a great season with 25 home runs and a .280 average.  

 

In the next round, I drafted Braves southpaw bullpen ace Jonny Venters.  Though he may not get many saves with Craig Kimbrel locked in at closer, Venters can certainly contribute in all other categories while picking up vulture wins.  

 

In the 23rd round I added Andres Torres, who now plays with the Mets.  I was looking to simply add a versatile outfielder who can offer some steals, but the problem here is that Torres has not been healthy and his production has taken a major dive, particularly against southpaws.  He might end up getting dropped before the season even opens.  

 

In round 24, I again made an investment in upside by drafting Mike Trout.  The Angels phenom was not ready for the Big Leagues last season, but 2012 may be the year his career takes off.  With Albert Pujols in the lineup there is a great opportunity for some serious run production.  

 

Next, I brought in an extra arm for my starting rotation.  Edwin Jackson is durable and is a cinch for 10 wins every season.  I'm thinking that he may do a lot better than that this season.  Now a full-time National Leaguer in a pitcher-friendly stadium, Jackson has the ability to approach 200 strikeouts with respectable all-around numbers.  

 

In the 26th round, I was pleased to see Gordon Beckham still available.  People have forgotten about his upside, but Beckham is a former top prospect with some power and speed who calls home to the middle infield in a hitter's park.  

 

Next, I picked up Blue Jays prospect Travis Snider.  The power is real, but the consistency is lacking, which explains why he will open the season in the Minor Leagues.  I'll likely keep him stashed on my bench considering his upside.  

 

Finally, in the last round of my fantasy draft I picked up A's shortstop Cliff Pennington.  Even in the last round of the draft, this was not a wasted pick.  In fact, Pennington is one of the top shortstops in baseball when he escapes the Oakland Coliseum.  He is a player to consider platooning for his road games.  

 

Here's a look at my 2012 Experts League Fantasy Squad broken down by position:

 

C: Josh Thole, Mets

C: Chris Iannetta, Angels

1B: Eric Hosmer, Royals

2B: Howie Kendrick, Angels

SS: Derek Jeter, Yankees

3B: Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays

MI: Danny Espinosa, Nationals

CI: Adam Dunn, White Sox

OF: Adam Jones, Orioles

OF: Nick Markakis, Orioles

OF: Drew Stubbs, Reds

OF: Ryan Raburn, Tigers

OF: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays

UT: Gordon Beckham, White Sox

Bench: Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Cliff Pennington, Travis Snider, Andres Torres

DL: Salvador Perez, Royals

P: Roy Halladay, Phillies

P: Cliff Lee, Phillies

P: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

P: Josh Johnson, Marlins

P: Edwin Jackson, Nationals

P: Jonny Venters, Braves

P: Joe Nathan, Rangers

P: Sergio Santos, Blue Jays

P: Frank Francisco, Mets

 

For more fantasy insight, visit BloombergSports.com

 

2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Breakdown, Rounds 10-18

 

 

Bloomberg Sports Host Julie Alexandria is joined by Bloomberg Sports Analyst Rob Shaw to break down an expert’s fantasy baseball draft. The draft, which included fantasy experts from CBS, Yahoo!, and ESPN was a 28-round draft that consisted of additional positions such as Middle Infielder, Corner Infielder, and five outfielder positions.  Additionally, the league includes more advanced statistics such as OBP and slugging rather than the typical batting average.

 

Here's a look at the first nine picks by Shaw:

1) Jose Bautista, Blue Jays

2) Roy Halladay, Phillies

3) Cliff Lee, Phillies

4) Eric Hosmer, Royals

5) Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

6) Adam Jones, Orioles

7) Howie Kendrick, Angels

8) Drew Stubbs, Reds

9) Derek Jeter, Yankees

 

Picking up with the 10th round pick, I drafted Josh Johnson, who similar to Stephen Strasburg has the ability to dominate on the hill, while also carrying serious health concerns.  Again, having both Halladay and Lee as durable aces on his staff allows for these high upside gambles.  The best case scenario would be incredible with Halladay, Lee, Strasburg, and Johnson all on the team. 

 

Speaking of gambles, in the 11th round I took a chance that Adam Dunn will bounce back from one of the worst all-time seasons in fantasy baseball.  Dunn has extra upside in this league as he is known for his high on base percentage as well as his slugging.  Immediately after the draft I even received two offers for Dunn.

 

In the 12th round I drafted Danny Espinosa.  There are concerns that he's a free swinger who lacks consistency and will hit for a low average.  On the other hand, he has a great combination of power and speed for a middle infielder.  Plus, as a sophomore, it is rational to expect significant improvement this season. 

 

I opted for a steady option in the 13th round drafting Nick Markakis.  It is clear that his power will never materialize into 30-plus home runs, but he does reach base consistently and has some speed and pop too.  Considering all the risks I’ve taken, this is a pick I had

 

The 14th round was a disaster for me.  This league requires that we start two catchers and I thought Salvador Perez was a fine hitter with decent run production.  Alas, he is injured and is expected to miss the first few months of the season.  I will have to find an option off the waiver wire.  Josh Thole, though limited in power, may be the safe bet since he will start and does have a respectable OBP. 

 

I finally deployed by strategy to pick up closers in the later rounds with the selection of Sergio Santos.  The hard-thrower gets a ton of strikeouts and should pick up 30-plus saves in Toronto.  I followed with Joe Nathan in the following round.  He dominated late last season and should have plenty of save opportunities with the Rangers.

 

I picked up my second catcher in the following round with Chris Iannetta.  I see him as a potential Mike Napoli-type slugger who at best can slam 20 bombs with a .250 average.  He does offer a nice OBP, which is rare for a catcher.  Maybe he’ll even surprise me the way Napoli did last season on my fantasy team. 

 

I grabbed another power bat in the 18th round with Edwin Encarnacion.  He was tremendous in the second half of last season, seemingly changing his approach at the plate to become more of a patient hitter.  The Blue Jays likely won’t tolerate another one of his trademark slow starts, so hopefully, this is the year that he puts it all together. 

 

For more fantasy baseball insight visit BloombergSports.com.

 

2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Breakdown, Rounds 1-9

   

 

Bloomberg Sports Host Julie Alexandria is joined by Bloomberg Sports Analyst Rob Shaw to break down an expert’s fantasy baseball draft. The draft, which included fantasy experts from CBS, Yahoo!, and ESPN was a 28-round draft that consisted of additional positions such as Middle Infielder, Corner Infielder, and five outfielder positions.  Additionally, the league includes more advanced statistics such as OBP and slugging rather than the typical batting average.

 

With the third overall pick, Shaw picked Jose Bautista, the slugging outfielder on the Blue Jays who still offers third base eligibility. Shaw explains that Bautista is more valuable in this fantasy league because of his sky high OBP and slugging percentage.  Even though Troy Tulowitzki's value as an elite shortstop is intriguing, in this specific league Bautista is the best bet. 

 

Next, in the second round Shaw hoped for Clayton Kershaw, but instead settled happily with Roy Halladay. It was a call between Halladay and Cliff Lee, but Halladay got the edge due to his greater consistency.  As it turned out, Lee was still available in the third round, and while Shaw rarely doubles down on pitchers this early in drafts, another elite ace with more strikeouts was too good to pass up.

 

In the fourth round, Shaw picked Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer, a young slugger with plenty of upside.  Shaw has stated before that he sees Hosmer as a more well-rounded first baseman than Mark Teixeira and that it would not surprise him if Hosmer ends up more valuable than Teixeira as soon as this season. 

 

Completing an incredible trio, Shaw drafted Stephen Strasburg in the fifth round.  This was only an option since his starting rotation already included two of the most durable pitchers in fantasy baseball: Halladay and Lee. Truth is Strasburg can be the most dominant pitcher in the game if finally healthy and it's a good sign that the Nationals have already announced the young hurler as their Opening Day starter. 

 

In the sixth round, Shaw drafted Adam Jones, who is a five-tool star, but there are some concerns since the Orioles center-fielder does not draw many walks, limiting his OBP. As a seventh round selection, Shaw added one of the most well-rounded hitters Howie Kendrick.  The Angels infielder has improved his power and speed and should enjoy greater run production with Albert Pujols now playing in Anaheim. 

 

In the eighth round, Shaw happily drafted a speedster in Drew Stubbs who could also blast 20 homers. Typically hurt by a low average, Stubbs does draw plenty of walks, which makes him more valuable in this specific league that counts OBP.  In need of a shortstop, Shaw went with an oldie but goodie, Derek Jeter. His power is down, but Jeter still reaches base often, can steals some bases, and score some runs. 

 

For more fantasy baseball insight visit BloombergSports.com.

Fantasy Baseball Strategy 2012 Edition

  

 

Every season a different strategy has to be utilized in fantasy baseball drafts in order to appropriately take into account positional depth and player rankings.  In general, a unique strategy can be utilized on a round-by-round basis.  Here's a breakdown of Bloomberg Sports recommended Fantasy Baseball Strategy 2012 Edition:

 

In the early rounds, the focus is finding the best available player while also taking into account the disparity between the best player and the next best option at each position.  For example, there is a plateau in excellence for starting pitchers as Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw can all be claimed as the best of the bunch.  On the other hand, Troy Tulowitzki stands alone amongst fellow shortstops. 

 

If your fantasy league includes slugging percentage and on base percentage as statistical categories, there is no competition for Jose Bautista in the outfield while there are several stars at first base including Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Joey Votto.  The best strategy is to pick up the best talent at a position where there is a large enough disparity that when the next player is drafted from that position there is a decisive advantage in your favor. 

 

In the early middle rounds, it's not a bad idea to scoop up a fine hurler who has the potential to rank amongst the best.  Players such as Jered Weaver, CC Sabathia, and Danny Haren as well as Nationals phenom Stephen Strasburg make sense in these rounds.  These hurlers have the ability to dominate and enjoy a Cy Young caliber season thanks to their enormous upside. 

 

Having two high potential and consistent hurlers is more valuable than having just one dominant ace.  Therefore, by drafting where there is greater disparity in the early rounds with a focus on position players, then nabbing a couple of pitchers with sky high potential fantasy managers can enjoy the best of both worlds. 

 

In the later middle rounds you can draft a closer and many of them.  Closers are often overrated in fantasy leagues since they only contribute 70 innings, which means saves are all that matters.  Second-tier closers still get the job done and players such as Joe Nathan could end up as bargains.  In fact, rather than selecting a Jonathan Papelbon in the sixth or seventh round, you can grab a Gio Gonzalez or a Drew Stubbs, someone who will have a much greater impact on your fantasy team. 

 

Then five rounds later go ahead and draft three closers in a row: Sergio Santos, Jason Motte, and Frank Francisco.  Plus, usually about 10 closers become available on the waiver wire each season.  In fact, all three of the pitchers just mentioned did not start the season as closers for their respective teams last season. 

 

Finally, in the later rounds, it's not a bad idea to focus on young talents with great potential as well as players with multiple position eligibility.  This allows you to pick up some big time prospects while also enjoying depth.  Consider top prospects such as Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.  There is no telling if the precocious sluggers will develop into stars as soon as this season. 

 

On the other hand, drafting veteran players such as Ryan Raburn and Daniel Murphy is also a key strategy in the later rounds since they cover multiple positions, providing depth to your fantasy teams.  This way if a player on your team gets injured, a single bench player can fill multiple holes. 

 

For more fantasy insight turn to BloombergSports.com.

The Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Factors Part 2

 

 

With more than 20 of the Major League Baseball teams turning to Bloomberg Sports as a business solution, fantasy managers can rest assured that their fantasy teams are in good hands.  

 

Offering a trade analyzer, lineup manager, and projections for every single player in the Big Leagues, Bloomberg Sports uses an algorithm that takes into account nine Fantasy Factors.  

 

In a previous article, we focused on ballpark, durability, age, and contract status.  Now the focus is on the remaining five Fantasy Factors.  

 

In fantasy baseball, career trends are an important aspect to be considered when evaluating players.  In essence, fantasy managers like investors have to know what's a growing stock and what's a mature stock.  A player on the rise would be a growing stock and two examples are Baltimore Orioles rising stars Adam Jones and Matt Wieters.  Both players are in their mid-20s and have been improving their statistics consistently over the last few seasons.  

 

On the other hand, Yankees veteran Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez are far from their prime and have recently suffered their worst seasons of their legendary careers.  It's perfectly fine to invest in a player on the decline, as long as you are realistic about what they can produce in the upcoming season.  

 

Next, luck is a Fantasy Factor that can help forecast performance.  Using an advanced statistic: BABIP, it is possible for baseball fans to find out if a player had luck on their side or if it worked against him over a given period.  

 

BABIP is the batting average for balls in play and takes into account whether a player enjoyed a higher percentage than usual of balls in play falling for hits.  For instance, if a player offers a BABIP that is significantly higher than their career norm, it is often a safe bet that in the following period his performance will regress to the previous rate.  

 

On the other hand, if the BABIP is abnormally low, it is safe to assume the player will have better luck ahead and his batting average and other statistics will improve.  The statistic can also be used for pitchers when looking at BABIP against the opposition.  

 

Next, team support is an important fantasy factor for hitters and pitchers.  For hitters, it is a matter of whether they have players around them in the lineup that they can drive in and players who will drive them in.  In other words, team support has a direct impact with RBI and runs.  For pitchers, it's a matter of having run support to earn wins, plus a solid defense behind them to keep runs off the board.  

 

Strength of schedule is the next factor, and this is all about what ballparks and teams an opponent faces.  Pitching in the AL East is no easy task for pitchers who have to deal with the Red Sox offense in Fenway Park, the Yankees offense in Yankees Stadium, and additional hitters parks in Toronto and Baltimore.  On the other hand, the NL West calls home to several pitcher parks and limited offenses including in San Francisco, San Diego, and Los Angeles.  

 

Consistency is a fantasy factor, as fantasy managers have to decide whether to gamble on a player who has great potential, but also great volatility.   A player like Geovany Soto seems to alternate between good years, while Torii Hunter and Yadier Molina are examples of players who seem to produce consistent numbers every given season.  

 

To see the Fantasy Factors in action visit BloombergSports.com.  

 

The Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Factors Part 1

 

 

When it comes to evaluating player performance and creating projections for the upcoming season, Bloomberg Sports takes several factors into account.  Here's a breakdown of four of the nine factors that allow Bloomberg Sports to offer the most accurate projections in fantasy sports while attracting more than 20 Major League teams to turn to the company for scouting and advanced analytical solutions.  

 

The first factor to consider is ballpark.  Over the last five years it seems like we have shifted back to the big ballparks that favor pitchers.  That is certainly the case for Citi Field, PETCO Park, and Target Field.  As a result, just about any Mets, Padres, or Twins hurler performs better at home than on the road.  

 

On the other hand, there are power alleys in Yankee Stadium, Coors Field, and most definitely the Ballpark in Arlington.  Fantasy managers want to invest in the pitchers from the large cavernous and the hitters in the bandboxes.  

 

On that note, be wary of pitchers who thrived in pitcher's parks such as Mat Latos and Heath Bell who now join more hitter-friendly confines and definitely invest in hitters such as Michael Cuddyer making the move from Target Field to Coors this season.  

 

The next fantasy factor to keep in mind is durability.  Fantasy managers expecting full seasons from Jose Reyes, Nelson Cruz, and Chipper Jones are playing against the odds.  There are durable hitters out there such as Yadier Molina and Roy Halladay.  Their durability is a fantasy asset since you know what to expect from them on a day-to-day basis.  

 

Next, fantasy managers should consider the age of their players.  Bloomberg Sports has found 26-31 to be the prime age for baseball players.  A younger player should be approaching his peak, while older players are typically on the decline.  It should not shock you that Ichiro, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez are slowing down with age.  

 

Finally, fantasy managers should consider the impact of a long-term deal.  It is very rare that the player delivers shortly after signing such a deal.  While we hate to question motivation, we have noticed that stars such as Jason Bay, John Lackey, Carl Crawford, and Jayson Werth were not nearly as productive after signing long-term deals compared to the season prior to the negotiation.  On that note, Jose Reyes and Albert Pujols may not be as safe as you thought.  

 

For all nine Fantasy Factors visit BloombergSports.com.  

Fantasy Baseball 2012 Preview: Top Five Catchers

 

 

There are often a few catchers who stand out as the finest of their generation.  In the 1980s it was Hall of Famers Gary Carter and Carlton Fisk.  The 1990s brought us Mike Piazza and Pudge Rodriguez.  The 2000s were dominated by archrivals Jason Varitek and Jorge Posada.  Now in the '10s we have a fresh generation of talent.

 

The fifth best backstop this season will be Giants masked marvel Buster Posey.  After a stellar rookie season that included 18 home runs and a .305 average, Posey was again enjoying some success last season while showing a little more plate discipline.  This season Bloomberg Sports projects Posey to return to prominence after a nasty collision at home plate ended his sophomore season prematurely.  Expect 17 home runs, 76 RBI, and a .282 batting clip.

 

Coming in at number four is the player with perhaps the most upside on this list, Carlos Santana.  As a rookie last season, Santana powered 27 home runs with 79 RBI and 84 runs.  Though he hit just .234, Santana's 97 walks are a tremendous total for such a young player.  Bloomberg Sports projects 25 home runs with 89 RBI and even five stolen bases for Santana this season.  

 

The third best catcher this season is also the steadiest: Brian McCann.  The Braves star has 20-plus home runs in five of the last six seasons.  While he does not offer any speed on the base paths, he does have a great deal of power and usually hits for a high average.  Expect 24 home runs with 85 RBI form the 28-year-old veteran.  

 

Coming in as the second best catcher is Twins sensation Joe Mauer.  Fantasy managers have to come to grips with what Mauer now offers.  Since the move to Target Field, Mauer does not pack much pop.  He also lacks speed due to the many leg injuries he has suffered behind the plate.  On the other hand, Mauer is a high average option with solid run production.  Expect 13 home runs with a .306 batting clip for the former MVP contender.

 

Finally, the top-hitting catcher in fantasy baseball is Mike Napoli.  The Rangers slugger became a household name in Texas last season thanks to his 30 home runs and .319 average.  Napoli proved his worth on the offensive and defensive side of the diamond and after going in the mid-to-late rounds of fantasy drafts last season he now ranks at the top of his position.  Expect him to offer a repeat performance with 30 home runs and 87 RBI.  

 

For more fantasy baseball insight visit BloombergSports.com.

 

Is Indians SP Ubaldo Jimenez a One-Hit Wonder?

 

 

It was shocking enough that an ace would tame Coors Field, it's even more mesmerizing that he actually regressed when traded to a far more pitcher-friendly ballpark.  

 

Ubaldo Jimenez was an elite pitcher in 2010.  He finished that season with a 19-8 record, but was even more dazzling at the All-Star break with a 15-1 record and 2.20 ERA.  Since then, Jimenez has regressed to being a barely above average hurler.

 

In the second half of the memorable 2010 season, Jimenez went 4-7 with a 3.80 ERA.  He then struggled out of the gate in 2011 and was traded to the Indians when his record was 6-9.  Things went from bad to worse, as his ERA soared to 5.10 during his 11 starts with the Indians.  

 

Jimenez will try to start from scratch this season, and while his results in his first two spring training starts are not very promising, the good news is that his fastball is back over 95 MPH for the first time since 2010.  Regardless, Jimenez remains a risky pick for fantasy managers.  

 

He should offer plenty of strikeouts, Bloomberg Sports projects 208, but his lack of control could lead to a WHIP and ERA well above what he's offered when he was at his past two seasons ago.  

 

 

What's Left in Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez?

 

 

For many years we have come to expect 30 home runs and 100 RBI from Alex Rodriguez.  Those benchmarks also came with great run production, solid stolen base totals, and a batting average north of .300.  Not anymore.  

 

Last season we saw that even the great ones are mortal.  A-Rod managed just 16 home runs as he was hampered by injuries all season.  Though he looks to be in great shape entering the spring and had some medical procedures done during the off-season, the big question in the Bronx is whether it's even possible for A-Rod to return to prominence as an elite slugger.

 

The answer is probably no.  There is a very well known pattern for players entering their late 30s tailing off in production.  It is also clear that Rodriguez is not as healthy as he was when he was younger.  It was five years ago that he last played 140 games in a season.  

 

Bloomberg Sports does anticipate a mild bounce back.  A-Rod should pound 23 home runs with 82 RBI.  That would mean he finishes the season with an astounding 652 career home runs.  Unfortunately, we are at the point in A-Rod's career where we will celebrate what he's accomplished over time rather than on a day-to-day basis.  

Can Red Sox Outfielder Carl Crawford Bounce Back?

 

 

 

There is no question about it, 2011 was a stinker for Red Sox outfielder Carl Crawford.  Acquiring the best player from the rival team was supposed to assure that the Red Sox would surpass the Rays in the AL East, but instead Crawford's disappointment was amongst many others for Boston as they failed to make the playoffs.  

 

What followed was a tumultuous off-season that saw the departure of the manager and general manager.  However, Crawford remains.  

 

While last year's struggles can be tied to Crawford’s acclimation to a major market for the first time in his career plus some nagging injuries, don't forget the reason why fantasy managers liked him so much heading into last season.  He is a line drive machine who should be able to use the Green Monster as a weapon, while adding speed to the top of the lineup.  

 

Part of the issue for Crawford's poor numbers was the fact that he was pushed down to the seventh spot of the Red Sox lineup.  As a result his runs took a major hit.  Always interested in the psyche of his players, expect Bobby Valentine to give Crawford every chance to succeed towards the top of the order. 

 

Bloomberg Sports Front Office expects a decent bounce back from Crawford.  He should blast 14 home runs with 35 stolen bases and a respectable .281 batting clip.  Of course, this can only happen if he stays healthy.  Crawford is currently dealing with a sore wrist that is threatening his ability to be a part of the Red Sox lineup on Opening Day.  

 

Expectations have never been lower, which makes him a decent middle round sleeper considering his sky-high potential that made him a bust last season.  

 

Sleeper Alert: Diamondbacks Paul Goldschmidt

 

 

He's already in his mid-20s, but Paul Goldschmidt could end up being a fantasy star as soon as this season.  An eighth round pick out of Texas State, Goldschmidt has been a pleasant surprise in the Diamondbacks farm system.  

 

Goldschmidt's power is legit, as he has slammed 73 round-trippers over the last two seasons.  He also has cut down on his strikeouts and increased his walks the last few seasons.  In his Big League debut, Goldschmidt slammed eight home runs in 48 games.  He also swiped four bases, which is a pleasant surprise for a slugger.  

 

While sluggers often take some time to develop in the Big Leagues, Goldschmidt is expected to produce as soon as this season.  BloombergSports.com Front Office projects 30 home runs this season, which could land the Diamondbacks right back in the thick of the hunt for the Division Title.  

Is 40 Home Runs Realistic for Reds OF Jay Bruce?

 

 

The Reds already have one megastar in the form of Joey Votto, but there may be another in the lineup.  Jay Bruce actually had more buzz around him when he made his debut than Votto.  The 12th pick of the 2005 draft, Bruce has been in the Big Leagues since he was 21-years old.  While there have been some growing pains over the last few seasons, he has improved, and at 25-years old he should be closer to his prime this season.  

 

Bruce has always possessed power.  He already has 100 career home runs before he even turned 25.  Last season was his first reaching the 30-home run plateau, as he slammed 32 round-trippers.  More impressive for his sabermetric fans, Bruce offered great patience at the plate with 71 walks, which made up for his .256 batting clip.  

 

One of the streakiest hitters in the game, Bruce blasted 12 home runs with a .342 average in May, but then hit less than .240 in three of the next four months.  Fantasy managers are hoping that another year under his belt will lead to some maturity and consistency at the plate.  Bruce is one of the rare talents who can slam 40 home runs with a .280-plus average.  However, that's just talk of potential, and when drafting you need to take more into account.